Five Greatest Election Fears

Valentine’s Day No Guarantee of Love in Nigerian Elections

I’ve been reading more about the upcoming elections in Nigeria, scheduled for February 14 and Feb. 28. In my last post I talked briefly about the two candidates for president and the problem of defeating Boko Haram.

Now I want to share my fears about these elections. I worry about sore losers, intimidation of rivals, lack of sufficient preparation, respect for international observers, and acceptance of results.

I am not alone in having concerns. According to a November report by the International Crisis Group, “Nigerian elections are traditionally fiercely contested, but in 2015, risks of violence are particularly high.” You can read their report and/or watch their video.

They describe several issues of concern a little different from mine: internal party tensions, rivalry between parties, Boko Haram insurgency, lack of sufficient electoral infrastructure, and competing claims about where the president should be from – the north/south divide which I mentioned in my last post.

First Fear – Sore Losers

Fierce internal debates took place among the party faithful as the parties selected their candidates.  This part of the campaigning is over and there was no major violence associated with the choices, but there are still hard feelings among some of the losers.

My first fear is that these losers will try to destabilize the campaigns of their rivals. Instead of rallying behind the chosen candidate, they may undermine the efforts and cause a loss even when the other candidate is weak.

Second – Intimidation

Now that candidates are known and campaigns are in full swing, I fear violence as parties try to intimidate their rivals. There has often been violence in this period of lead-up to elections.

So far, I am encouraged. Both major parties held their campaign launches in the last month. These major party rallies can be an opportunity for disruption by opponents. There were a few scuffles, but no major violence that I’ve heard about.

There was however major traffic disruption that had a personal side.

On January 6^th, President Goodluck Jonathan announced his campaign launch would be on January 8 at Tafawa Balewa Square, formerly known as the Race Course. That was the same day as the 80^th birthday party for our friend Frank Aig-Imoukhuede.

Our sons Chinaku and Sam wondered whether the Aig-Imoukhuedes would try to change the location or the date since their party was at the MUSON Center on the Marina in Lagos, 250 meters (less than 1000 feet) from Tafawa Balewa Square.

Apparently there were severe traffic problems, including roads closed, for the campaign launch at 11 am. But when Clem and our sons went to Frank’s party at 4, the roads were clear!

Third – Preparation

My next fear is that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), led by Professor Attahiru Jega, will not be able to fulfill its charges and promises. The Sun has an article that says 75% of the voter cards have been distributed. They have instructed voters to pick up their cards at regional distribution centers.

They have announced that there will be provisions for displaced people in the north due to the Boko Haram insurgency. I saw an article yesterday that suggested there should also be provisions for people in other parts of the country who have fled the north because of the insurgency.

In addition to registration and the voters’ list, INEC has to provide the ballots. I worry that there won’t be enough ballots for all the polling places on the day of the elections. Or the ballots will be printed but not delivered.

Fourth – International Observers

INEC has posted the list of international observers. They say there are 88 accredited groups. But will they have the access they need to confirm election results?

And fifth – Results 

With all these concerns, my greatest fear is that the election will take place successfully but the losers will refuse to accept the results.

But I am hopeful. According to AllAfrica, “All Nigerian presidential candidates Thursday adopted an inter-party agreement on non-violence and acceptance of the results in the pending presidential polls.”

Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, came to Nigeria to help negotiate this agreement and was present at the signing in the capital Abuja.

This agreement helps to alleviate my fears, but the fact that it was necessary means my fears are real. I will tell you more about the plans for the election in the next post.

Let me know if you have questions or insights to share.

I’ll also share news about upcoming speaking events which involve connections to dear old friends – I hope I’ll have an event near you.